Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Overview
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy occurs when someone finds a pattern or relationship in data after the fact and then claims that this pattern was intended from the start. It’s named after a joke about a sharpshooter who fires randomly at a barn wall, paints targets around the bullet holes, and claims to be highly accurate. This fallacy highlights how people can selectively focus on information that supports their narrative while ignoring contradictory data.
Key Themes
- Cherry-Picking Data: Focusing only on evidence that fits a desired story or outcome, often after observing the results.
- Bias in Pattern Recognition: Seeing patterns where none exist, driven by preconceptions or goals.
- Overfitting to Specific Cases: Creating overly specific explanations that fit existing data but lack general applicability.
Significance
By recognizing when patterns might be artificially created after the fact, individuals can avoid misleading themselves or others with flawed reasoning.